FY-19 NAVY ACTIVE-DUTY COMMANDER LINE SELECTIONS

Re: FY-19 NAVY ACTIVE-DUTY COMMANDER LINE SELECTIONS

Postby yoshi » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:57 pm

Not convinced milestones make a difference. Everyone IZ has the same 'requirements' for the next rank and timing pretty much affects everyone equally. Also, believe a fair number of selects didn't have milestone, and a few with milestone didn't select. It's really about the paper. If timing is an issue, it's more likely to be related to when one PCSs relative in front of their IZ look. It seems more (all) about the paper. All told, the fact is, unless this year's zone was exceptionally weak relative to last year's, it is taking longer than previously to be recognized as a top performer amongst peers worthy of the next rank. Concur on long-standing FITREP and ranking issues.
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Re: FY-19 NAVY ACTIVE-DUTY COMMANDER LINE SELECTIONS

Postby COMEVIL » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:00 pm

yoshi wrote:Understanding the policy provided by law, when a third of your selects are AZ, there is a problem somewhere. Is the quality of our officers declining at such a rate that we have to rely on who we rejected last year to perform 33% of our community business going forward? Or is it simply an organizational phase which will increase the value of seniority? Either is necrosis. Like many of us, I know most of the officers in both the AZ and IZ category for this year's cycle and have many friends in both groups. We should not have had that many AZ selects. However, the board doesn't have the insight of peers or subordinates or (apparently) supervisors. We desperately need 360 degree evaluations, especially if COs aren't meaningfully involved.


First of all this isn't a trend. Only 4 AZ 1810 picks to CDR last year.

Secondly, these are literally candidates grouped together simply by lineal number. Get in line and wait your turn.

Conventional wisdom has always told us that you get picked IZ, if you are going to get picked at all. AZ picks were the exception. In general, that was true, and possibly a self-fulfilling prophecy for board members. Remove the stamps and the board is left picking the best candidate, without prejudice. That is the theory anyway.

So who says that when grouped together this year those picked weren't simple the best candidates. And it just happens that a good number of the best were AZ. Maybe the IZ group were collectively weaker than most. Hard to say in the end but I don't think we can call this a trend by any stretch.
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Re: FY-19 NAVY ACTIVE-DUTY COMMANDER LINE SELECTIONS

Postby Sum1 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:17 am

COMEVIL wrote:
yoshi wrote:Understanding the policy provided by law, when a third of your selects are AZ, there is a problem somewhere. Is the quality of our officers declining at such a rate that we have to rely on who we rejected last year to perform 33% of our community business going forward? Or is it simply an organizational phase which will increase the value of seniority? Either is necrosis. Like many of us, I know most of the officers in both the AZ and IZ category for this year's cycle and have many friends in both groups. We should not have had that many AZ selects. However, the board doesn't have the insight of peers or subordinates or (apparently) supervisors. We desperately need 360 degree evaluations, especially if COs aren't meaningfully involved.


First of all this isn't a trend. Only 4 AZ 1810 picks to CDR last year.

Secondly, these are literally candidates grouped together simply by lineal number. Get in line and wait your turn.

Conventional wisdom has always told us that you get picked IZ, if you are going to get picked at all. AZ picks were the exception. In general, that was true, and possibly a self-fulfilling prophecy for board members. Remove the stamps and the board is left picking the best candidate, without prejudice. That is the theory anyway.

So who says that when grouped together this year those picked weren't simple the best candidates. And it just happens that a good number of the best were AZ. Maybe the IZ group were collectively weaker than most. Hard to say in the end but I don't think we can call this a trend by any stretch.


I tend to agree... one (or even two) data points a trend does not make.

My main gripe with the system is it still is too inflexible to pull up talent early in any meaningful way. Even if we got through the board-isms that make it hard, there's still the statutory limits (not that I'd expect any community to get anywhere close to the 10%).

I'd really like to get to Millington as a recorder one of these days (read: years). Seems like one of those experiences every single O-4 and above should have.
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Re: FY-19 NAVY ACTIVE-DUTY COMMANDER LINE SELECTIONS

Postby COMEVIL » Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:46 am

Sum1 wrote:
COMEVIL wrote:
yoshi wrote:Understanding the policy provided by law, when a third of your selects are AZ, there is a problem somewhere. Is the quality of our officers declining at such a rate that we have to rely on who we rejected last year to perform 33% of our community business going forward? Or is it simply an organizational phase which will increase the value of seniority? Either is necrosis. Like many of us, I know most of the officers in both the AZ and IZ category for this year's cycle and have many friends in both groups. We should not have had that many AZ selects. However, the board doesn't have the insight of peers or subordinates or (apparently) supervisors. We desperately need 360 degree evaluations, especially if COs aren't meaningfully involved.


First of all this isn't a trend. Only 4 AZ 1810 picks to CDR last year.

Secondly, these are literally candidates grouped together simply by lineal number. Get in line and wait your turn.

Conventional wisdom has always told us that you get picked IZ, if you are going to get picked at all. AZ picks were the exception. In general, that was true, and possibly a self-fulfilling prophecy for board members. Remove the stamps and the board is left picking the best candidate, without prejudice. That is the theory anyway.

So who says that when grouped together this year those picked weren't simple the best candidates. And it just happens that a good number of the best were AZ. Maybe the IZ group were collectively weaker than most. Hard to say in the end but I don't think we can call this a trend by any stretch.


I tend to agree... one (or even two) data points a trend does not make.

My main gripe with the system is it still is too inflexible to pull up talent early in any meaningful way. Even if we got through the board-isms that make it hard, there's still the statutory limits (not that I'd expect any community to get anywhere close to the 10%).

I'd really like to get to Millington as a recorder one of these days (read: years). Seems like one of those experiences every single O-4 and above should have.


Early can be good, but not always. It would probably get a little too personal but if you take a look at the BZ LCDR and CDR picks over the years and see where they went, I wonder what you'd find.

I have also observed an alarming trend in the CPO mess, with 6-7 year Chiefs who really don't have the experience required for the rank.

Early isn't always better.
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Re: FY-19 NAVY ACTIVE-DUTY COMMANDER LINE SELECTIONS

Postby Mjölnir » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:58 pm

COMEVIL wrote:Conventional wisdom has always told us that you get picked IZ, if you are going to get picked at all. AZ picks were the exception. In general, that was true, and possibly a self-fulfilling prophecy for board members. Remove the stamps and the board is left picking the best candidate, without prejudice. That is the theory anyway.

So who says that when grouped together this year those picked weren't simple the best candidates. And it just happens that a good number of the best were AZ. Maybe the IZ group were collectively weaker than most. Hard to say in the end but I don't think we can call this a trend by any stretch.


That somewhat is articulating what I was mentioning about timing / PRDs etc. If the average IZ LCDR has 5 FITREPs (annual / regular) when they are in zone, based on a milestone job taking 24 months and another regular tour taking ~36 ... that is 5 years. Without the the AZ, IZ, BZ stamps ... is it more likely that someone with 6 maybe 7 FITREPs will have 'more' of what the covening order states the community wants ... which dependant on the group may lean towards more AZ selections. Granted 'more' isn't necessarily 'better' ...

My own personal timing seems (to me) to have been lucky as I found out I selected to O4 while enroute to the Legislative Fellows program and promoted near the end of the assignment (only burned 4 months time in grade). I was able to get an 'operational tour' at USCYBERCOM and my milestone at ONI complete prior to my IZ look for O5. That said, my USCYBERCOM tour was 24 months, ONI was 24 months -- I had 5 annual FITREPs in front of the O5 board (the first only had 3 months time as a LCDR but...) and 1 Detachment of Reporting Senior report.

Sum1 wrote:I'd really like to get to Millington as a recorder one of these days (read: years). Seems like one of those experiences every single O-4 and above should have.


I was an asst recorder for an O5 board; it is a very educational experience. Push to get the opportunity.
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Last edited by Mjölnir on Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: FY-19 NAVY ACTIVE-DUTY COMMANDER LINE SELECTIONS

Postby Sum1 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:16 am

COMEVIL wrote:
Sum1 wrote:
I tend to agree... one (or even two) data points a trend does not make.

My main gripe with the system is it still is too inflexible to pull up talent early in any meaningful way. Even if we got through the board-isms that make it hard, there's still the statutory limits (not that I'd expect any community to get anywhere close to the 10%).

I'd really like to get to Millington as a recorder one of these days (read: years). Seems like one of those experiences every single O-4 and above should have.


Early can be good, but not always. It would probably get a little too personal but if you take a look at the BZ LCDR and CDR picks over the years and see where they went, I wonder what you'd find.

I have also observed an alarming trend in the CPO mess, with 6-7 year Chiefs who really don't have the experience required for the rank.

Early isn't always better.


I hope I didn't suggest that early would be better for everyone. If so, that was not my intention.

What I was trying to suggest is that early should be a viable option for those who can meet or exceed the expected standard for such a selection. If you're concerned about experience, then put in the effort to identify potential candidates early (this is where XO/CO interaction will be key) and detail those Sailors selectively. Instead of keeping someone at USCYBERCOM for three years, maybe you keep them there for two and move them into a different experience. As long as FITREPs stay competitive, keep doing it. You end up with a lot more breadth of experience seeing different situations/jobs than you would otherwise in an equal amount of time doing the "usual" sea/shore (out/in) rotation (if we even have that anymore).

With all that said, I was a 6 year PO1... I knew I was in over my head at the time, but it wasn't until much later that I realized just HOW in over my head I actually was. Even now, there are moments at every rank where when I reflect back I kind of cringe at how I handled a situation or a choice I made. We're all trying to figure this out as we go along, but its those who put in the effort and WANT to learn that tend to do well (in my humble opinion).
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Re: FY-19 NAVY ACTIVE-DUTY COMMANDER LINE SELECTIONS

Postby COMEVIL » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:58 pm

Sum1 wrote:
COMEVIL wrote:
Sum1 wrote:
I tend to agree... one (or even two) data points a trend does not make.

My main gripe with the system is it still is too inflexible to pull up talent early in any meaningful way. Even if we got through the board-isms that make it hard, there's still the statutory limits (not that I'd expect any community to get anywhere close to the 10%).

I'd really like to get to Millington as a recorder one of these days (read: years). Seems like one of those experiences every single O-4 and above should have.


Early can be good, but not always. It would probably get a little too personal but if you take a look at the BZ LCDR and CDR picks over the years and see where they went, I wonder what you'd find.

I have also observed an alarming trend in the CPO mess, with 6-7 year Chiefs who really don't have the experience required for the rank.

Early isn't always better.


I hope I didn't suggest that early would be better for everyone. If so, that was not my intention.

What I was trying to suggest is that early should be a viable option for those who can meet or exceed the expected standard for such a selection. If you're concerned about experience, then put in the effort to identify potential candidates early (this is where XO/CO interaction will be key) and detail those Sailors selectively. Instead of keeping someone at USCYBERCOM for three years, maybe you keep them there for two and move them into a different experience. As long as FITREPs stay competitive, keep doing it. You end up with a lot more breadth of experience seeing different situations/jobs than you would otherwise in an equal amount of time doing the "usual" sea/shore (out/in) rotation (if we even have that anymore).

With all that said, I was a 6 year PO1... I knew I was in over my head at the time, but it wasn't until much later that I realized just HOW in over my head I actually was. Even now, there are moments at every rank where when I reflect back I kind of cringe at how I handled a situation or a choice I made. We're all trying to figure this out as we go along, but its those who put in the effort and WANT to learn that tend to do well (in my humble opinion).


I think the biggest barricade to BZ picks (for those qualified) is the FITREP system itself. Way too often we simply stack the Officers in line, based on when they are in zone, and hope for the best.

Again, totally within the realm of the reporting senior, along with the right verbiage and scores to ensure those that SHOULDN'T picked don't get picked.

As long as we keep lining them up in accordance with seniority and making the case that everyone is awesome, nothing really significant will change, stamps or not.
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Re: FY-19 NAVY ACTIVE-DUTY COMMANDER LINE SELECTIONS

Postby Mjölnir » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:25 pm

COMEVIL wrote:I think the biggest barricade to BZ picks (for those qualified) is the FITREP system itself. Way too often we simply stack the Officers in line, based on when they are in zone, and hope for the best.

Again, totally within the realm of the reporting senior, along with the right verbiage and scores to ensure those that SHOULDN'T picked don't get picked.

As long as we keep lining them up in accordance with seniority and making the case that everyone is awesome, nothing really significant will change, stamps or not.


Agree with you here. I think there would also be an impediment to an O4 (or O5) who does not complete their milestone as early as possible -- no matter how good they are, the convening order was pretty clear on the importance of the milestone (does killing it in a non-MS assignment overcome not having one yet?).
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Re: FY-19 NAVY ACTIVE-DUTY COMMANDER LINE SELECTIONS

Postby COMEVIL » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:50 pm

Mjölnir wrote:
COMEVIL wrote:I think the biggest barricade to BZ picks (for those qualified) is the FITREP system itself. Way too often we simply stack the Officers in line, based on when they are in zone, and hope for the best.

Again, totally within the realm of the reporting senior, along with the right verbiage and scores to ensure those that SHOULDN'T picked don't get picked.

As long as we keep lining them up in accordance with seniority and making the case that everyone is awesome, nothing really significant will change, stamps or not.


Agree with you here. I think there would also be an impediment to an O4 (or O5) who does not complete their milestone as early as possible -- no matter how good they are, the convening order was pretty clear on the importance of the milestone (does killing it in a non-MS assignment overcome not having one yet?).


Excellent point, especially for those looking to screen for Command (or get deep selected).

Go to your MS as early as possible, even if it means reporting as a LCDR (CDR sel) to a CDR milestone tour.
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Re: FY-19 NAVY ACTIVE-DUTY COMMANDER LINE SELECTIONS

Postby Sum1 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:37 am

COMEVIL wrote:
Mjölnir wrote:
COMEVIL wrote:I think the biggest barricade to BZ picks (for those qualified) is the FITREP system itself. Way too often we simply stack the Officers in line, based on when they are in zone, and hope for the best.

Again, totally within the realm of the reporting senior, along with the right verbiage and scores to ensure those that SHOULDN'T picked don't get picked.

As long as we keep lining them up in accordance with seniority and making the case that everyone is awesome, nothing really significant will change, stamps or not.


Agree with you here. I think there would also be an impediment to an O4 (or O5) who does not complete their milestone as early as possible -- no matter how good they are, the convening order was pretty clear on the importance of the milestone (does killing it in a non-MS assignment overcome not having one yet?).


Excellent point, especially for those looking to screen for Command (or get deep selected).

Go to your MS as early as possible, even if it means reporting as a LCDR (CDR sel) to a CDR milestone tour.


There may be such a thing as TOO early, though. I found myself in a really weird situation where I essentially received O-4 MS credit for a job I did mostly as an O-3 (and O-4 select). I promoted on 1 Sept and left the command on 17 Oct MS complete. In that case, my only O-4 MS FITREP was a transfer FITREP. It will remain to be seen if that negatively impacts me, but its something to consider.
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