Projected Promotion Zones

Projected Promotion Zones

Postby Schlag » Sat Dec 10, 2016 2:50 pm

Understand that the actual zone message for FY18 should be out any day now, but while I was surfing SailorBob I came across this document found at http://www.public.navy.mil/bupers-npc/officer/communitymanagers/Unrestricted/nsw/Documents/Promotion%20Zone%20Forecast%20(FY17-FY21).pdf

Does the CW/IWC maintain a similar document? I've seen the OPA charts from the OCM, but I was curious if we actually maintained the 5-year projection of zones and flow points. Reason why I ask, I think it's very interesting that URL LCDR are steadily creeping to the right (est. flow point of over 11 YCS starting FY20) and I'm curious where we stand in that calculus. I know for a fact that I'm moving much quicker through the zones now as a CW than I did as a SWO, but even still, many of my contemporaries that went IP were in zone last year, so they're essentially 1.5-2yrs ahead of their contemporaries in the URL.

As discussions about the IWC going URL and what that might look like keep coming up here and there, I think it's important that we take a look at how life is in the URL and factor that in with any such discussions that take place.
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Re: Projected Promotion Zones

Postby CNO Guy » Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:21 pm

Yes, the OCMs build a promotion plan for the execution year and project out to the future as well based on statistical loss rate/average over time.

For last year's promotion plan here were the target opportunities and FlowPoints across the FYDP:

CAPT FP OPP
FY17 21-8 50%
FY18 21-4 50%
FY19 21-3 50%
FY20 21-6 50%
FY21 22-4 50%

CDR FP OPP
FY17 16-2 70%
FY18 16-0 70%
FY19 16-1 70%
FY20 16-2 70%
FY21 16-8 70%

LCDR FP OPP
FY17 9-10 85%
FY18 9-8 80%
FY19 9-11 80%
FY20 10-3 80%
FY21 10-5 80%

The FlowPoint (FP) is the average years of commissioned service when a due course officer is promoted to the next grade (not selected, but actually promoted), e.g. 9-10 is 9 years and 10 months.
Opportunity (OPP) is the in-zone possibility of selection prior to the board convening

IAW SECNAVINST 1420.1A these are the guidelines that the promotion plan must fall within:
FP OPP
CAPT 21-23yrs 40-60%
CDR 15-17yrs 60-80%
LCDR 9-11yrs 70-90%
LT AFQ
LTJG AFQ

Once the NAVADMIN is released with FY18 stats (likely next week), I will post the new planned FP/OPP for FY18-22 and you will see some notable differences in both OPP and FP, just realize that the out years are simply projections to ensure a given community is staying within the SECNAVINST guidelines and subject to change during execution year planning.
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Re: Projected Promotion Zones

Postby Schlag » Wed Dec 14, 2016 10:39 am

Sir, thanks for the great post! Much appreciated!
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Re: Projected Promotion Zones

Postby CNO Guy » Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:38 pm

Ok, new zone NAVADMIN on the streets (NAVADMIN 273/16) and here is the IWC portion:

Captain Line
Special Duty Officer (Oceanography) (180X)
Senior in-zone - CDR B. G. Harris 022535-25 01 AUG 2011
Junior in-zone - CDR A. G. Turek 023133-50 01 OCT 2012
Junior eligible - CDR E. E. Acosta 023645-75 01 SEP 2014
Special Duty Officer (Cryptologic Warfare) (181X)
Senior in-zone - CDR H. A. Yudisky 022874-25 01 SEP 2011
Junior in-zone - CDR J. M. Groenke 023394-50 01 DEC 2013
Junior eligible - CDR B. T. Oneill III 024037-50 01 SEP 2015
Special Duty Officer (Information Professional) (182X)
Senior in-zone - CDR J. A. Lecounte 023025-00 01 SEP 2012
Junior in-zone - CDR P. C. Breuer 023299-25 01 SEP 2013
Junior eligible - CDR R. W. Moore 024075-00 01 SEP 2015
Special Duty Officer (Intelligence) (183X)
Senior in-zone - CDR R. E. Kendall 022492-75 01 MAR 2011
Junior in-zone - CDR J. P. Dewan 022986-25 01 AUG 2012
Junior eligible - CDR J. T. Laubaugh 023671-50 01 NOV 2014

CDR Line
Special Duty Officer (Oceanography) (180X)
Senior in-zone - LCDR R. J. Cleary 037456-50 01 OCT 2011
Junior in-zone - LCDR D. H. Keeter 038183-00 01 SEP 2012
Junior eligible - LCDR W. A. Sauer II 041159-50 01 APR 2015
Special Duty Officer (Cryptologic Warfare) (181X)
Senior in-zone - LCDR J. P. Mock 037242-50 01 SEP 2011
Junior in-zone - LCDR J. A. Mccaleb 038971-50 01 SEP 2013
Junior eligible - LCDR K. Bae 041535-00 01 SEP 2015
Special Duty Officer (Information Professional) (182X)
Senior in-zone - LCDR R. N. Johnson 037445-50 01 OCT 2011
Junior in-zone - LCDR H. L. Bush 038489-50 01 JUL 2013
Junior eligible - LCDR C. B. Summerville 041778-00 01 SEP 2015
Special Duty Officer (Intelligence) (183X)
Senior in-zone - LCDR C. M. Lepore 035578-50 01 SEP 2010
Junior in-zone - LCDR S. D. Nguyen 037537-50 01 FEB 2012
Junior eligible - LCDR K. M. Murdock 041279-50 01 SEP 2015

LCDR Line
Special Duty Officer (Oceanography) (180X)
Senior in-zone LT P. B. Smith 117770-00 01 SEP 2012
Junior in-zone - LT J. F. Yanez 123208-00 01 JUN 2013
Junior eligible LT A. C. Price 136658-00 01 JUN 2015
Special Duty Officer (Cryptologic Warfare) (181X)
Senior in-zone LT R. U. Tuohy IV 115558-00 01 JUN 2012
Junior in-zone - LT J. G. Thomas 123388-00 01 JUL 2013
Junior eligible LT D. Hatley 136028-00 01 JUN 2015
Special Duty Officer (Information Professional) (182X)
Senior in-zone LT M. Benitez 119370-00 01 MAR 2013
Junior in-zone - LT T. A. Polyard 125972-00 01 MAR 2014
Junior eligible LT J. R. Brown 138232-00 01 NOV 2015
Special Duty Officer (Intelligence) (183X)
Senior in-zone LT T. P. Moulton 111760-00 01 SEP 2011
Junior in-zone - LT T. R. Cameron 118608-00 01 JAN 2013
Junior eligible LT T. E. Deghetto 131216-00 01 NOV 2014
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Re: Projected Promotion Zones

Postby CNO Guy » Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:49 pm

While I want to provide the planned for OPP and FP numbers for FY18-22 promotion plan, I have been counseled that it shouldn't be shared until a given board itself convenes and is published in the convening order. That being said, I will tell you that we will see trends of increased OPP and lower FP compared to last year's plan as a result of combined OPA growth and an unexpected high loss rate in FY16 that resulted in a large shortfall of inventory that we are aggressively promoting to.

Happy to have individual discussions, but after the board season is over I can provide more data.
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Re: Projected Promotion Zones

Postby O-4's hate me » Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:54 am

CNO Guy wrote:Happy to have individual discussions, but after the board season is over I can provide more data.


OCM: While not specifically commenting, others are certainly absorbing and appreciating the info you are putting out. Where else is this being disseminated? Am I looking in all the right places? Thanks.
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Re: Projected Promotion Zones

Postby CNO Guy » Thu Dec 22, 2016 2:20 pm

Promotion plan details are shared with community flag leadership during the development of the O4-O6 promotion by from the OCMs, and then once community approved, it is pushed up to SECNAV via OPNAV N1...outside of that, there is very little shared to prevent undue influence (or even the perception of) on a given board in any way. If you have questions of whether or not you are in zone or when you are projected to be in zone, call me and we can discuss when you are projected to be in zone based on the latest draft plan...of course subject to change as mentioned previously in this thread.

For general community news related to OCM functions, I have been sending out monthly emails to leadership and the distro has been slowly growing. Have also been turning that email into a blog post that updates once a month on the new MilSuite page (https://www.milsuite.mil/book/groups/na ... icer-group) that you can find by searching "ocm update" internal to MilSuite. Of note, the blog post functionality allows me to attach relevant files from the email as well...but that being said, not sure how many people are reading it there. To gain access to MilSuite contact the JO Detailers who own the "keys" there, and should you wish to be added to the email just send me your contact info.
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