FY-17 Zone Message

Re: FY-17 Zone Message

Postby Arkad » Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:37 am

COMEVIL wrote:
Thought this info wasn't released until the board convenes. Or am I thinking of something else?


Transparency...it's a beautiful thing. Wish we had the opportunity to get used to it!?!?!
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Re: FY-17 Zone Message

Postby COMEVIL » Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:39 am

Arkad wrote:
COMEVIL wrote:
Thought this info wasn't released until the board convenes. Or am I thinking of something else?


Transparency...it's a beautiful thing. Wish we had the opportunity to get used to it!?!?!


Trust me, I'm all for it. Just surprised to see such info prior to board convening.
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Re: FY-17 Zone Message

Postby Schlag » Sun Dec 20, 2015 10:05 pm

CNO Guy wrote:To make the math easy on everyone here are the zone sizes and target opportunity for each paygrade this year:

CAPT
In Zone: 22
Selects: 11
Opp: 50%

CDR
In Zone: 37
Selects: 26
Opp: 70%

LCDR
In Zone: 69
Selects: 59
Opp: 85% (5% increase from last year)


Maybe I'm reading WAY too much into the zone sizes, but I thought that some of this was pretty strange.

Zone for CAPT nearly mirrors the selects for CDR (26 selects for CDR versus a zone size of 22 for CAPT). The comparability insinuates that the probable course of attrition from CDR to CAPT is through the promotion board with a few CDR retiring before they are in zone for CAPT.

However, the zone size for CDR (total of 37) is nearly half of the number of LCDR that we're going to make this year (projection of 59). Does this mean the community expects to lose close to 40% of the LCDR selects between now and when they go up for CDR?

Not saying this as an alarm raiser of misconduct or an upcoming reduction in force (RIF). I figure that the source of attrition would be through retirements and a few resignations here and there. But still, do we typically plan on losing almost 40% of our LCDR through retirements/resignations? Is that a typical phasing plan or an upcoming anomaly?
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Re: FY-17 Zone Message

Postby Arkad » Mon Dec 21, 2015 3:34 am

Schlag - This should help you (and others) better understand the math - Promotion Plan Math
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Re: FY-17 Zone Message

Postby CNO Guy » Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:51 pm

The YouTube video provided by Arkad will help with the basics of how the zones are computed, but for this particular year we (IW Community) still had/have some growth in Officer Programed Authorization (OPA) also known as endstrength. As of now, we should finish promoting into that programed growth during the FY18 boards...of course any future adjustments to OPA will change that.

So bottom line, yes we are accounting for the retirements/resignations/separations, but we are also growing into additional OPA which affects the zone sizes.

There was some significant growth a few years back that we deliberately decided to spread over a few years vice taking it all at once. Specific to this year, we started with a delta in inventory compared to OPA of -2 for CAPT, -11 for CDR, and -23 for LCDR; and that is before we account for retirements/resignations/separations during the FY. Had we taken the OPA growth all at once the LCDR zone would have been ~95 officers and selected 70+ with ~20 FoS resulting a large population of potential 2x FoS the following year. To avoid a large deficit in a particular set of year groups and ensure healthy/competitive promotions at follow-on paygrades we did not take that growth all at once. Won't go into all the math, but as stated earlier, we should be done promoting into our vacancies at the control grades (O4+) after the FY18 boards so the "new norm" for selects each year should be seen in the FY19 zones steading out at about 8-10 CAPT, 15-18 CDR, and 38-40 LCDR.
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Re: FY-17 Zone Message

Postby cleansparks » Mon Dec 21, 2015 11:17 pm

Are these numbers also available for the Reserve Component?

CNO Guy wrote:To make the math easy on everyone here are the zone sizes and target opportunity for each paygrade this year:

CAPT
In Zone: 22
Selects: 11
Opp: 50%

CDR
In Zone: 37
Selects: 26
Opp: 70%

LCDR
In Zone: 69
Selects: 59
Opp: 85% (5% increase from last year)

Few random thoughts to go with the numbers:
- The target opportunity (%) assumes all selects from the in zone population which will likely not be the case as we have seen over the past several years of boards.
- This year the zone stamps will no longer be on the briefed records
- Make sure to review the precepts and convening order on the BUPERS web page as the boards get closer for specific areas of emphasis
- If you are above, in, or below zone make sure your record is up to date with education, AQDs, awards, etc b/c the board members won't do it for you
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Re: FY-17 Zone Message

Postby Schlag » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:45 am

Appreciate the insight about the zones! Didn't know that we were still filling our vacancies
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Re: FY-17 Zone Message

Postby LIVINGIW » Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:58 pm

The new Community Brief that will be briefed to all boards is posted at:

http://www.public.navy.mil/bupers-npc/b ... 0BRIEF.pdf
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Re: FY-17 Zone Message

Postby Arkad » Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:08 am

CDR Command % is much higher than I thought it would be. Pleased to see the inclusion of CMF and IDFOR. Still no mention of valuing those who shape our future as members of the schoolhouse.
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Re: FY-17 Zone Message

Postby Sum1 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:24 am

Arkad wrote:CDR Command % is much higher than I thought it would be. Pleased to see the inclusion of CMF and IDFOR. Still no mention of valuing those who shape our future as members of the schoolhouse.


I didn't think it would be that high, either. That's certainly encouraging!

A few folks here have used the metaphor "grow where you're planted" as a way to emphasize that sustained superior performance trumps all, which I tend to agree with. I do find it interesting that we emphasize the "do's" but rarely discuss the "do nots" as it pertains to job selection and/or experience gained. Are there jobs to avoid? Unofficial "gouge" passed down says yes, but I think its rarely discussed because it brings up sticky questions like "if this job isn't important to us or something we value, why are we doing it?"
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