Is our promotion and command selection process TRULY fair?

Re: Is our promotion and command selection process TRULY fai

Postby COMEVIL » Sun Jul 13, 2014 12:44 am

yoshi wrote:If it isn't announced as a screening board, that means someone is picking, and not a group using a process. I speculate this means some of the milestone billets are slated and then presented to community leader(s) for approval (such as FCC/CYBERCOM), while other billets are simply decided in Millington (the fleet ones, minus CRC jobs, maybe). I cannot imagine the process we are using for these milestone billets will survive very much longer, as it does not give everyone an equitable shot. It is based on performance, but only considers certain people within a specific PRD window. Also, it is very susceptible to being affected by personality differences between the detailers/community leader and candidates for those billets.

Considering the effect milestone billets have (they are essentially a first filter) on O5 promotion and the O5 command screening process (pretty close to synonymous with O6 promotion), the right thing to do is to find a more legitimate process. Yep, there would be challenges in doing so, but it is something which can be - and should be - done. I personally like the idea of O4 milestone billets, as we now have a way for officers to understand where they are, how they are perceived, and how long they can realistically expect their career to last. A screening process (even a loose one) is preferable to the status quo, as it is more honest and ultimately a better deal for the officer/family. I think this is an opportunity for us to demonstrate integrity, as I know this O4 milestone topic has generated much churn. It isn't any worse for the Navy, since the community already knows who it has tagged as having command potential at about the O4 level, and certainly by O5 (O5 command screen of course). I think removing the uncertainty at O4 would best serve our community and the Navy. More might retire sooner as O4s, but the promotion percentage for O5 could increase to accommodate, allowing the community to keep the same people (in number) it considers future leaders.


This could be easily implemented. They already do a slate each year for XO opportunities, picking a fill for each availability. The same could be done for the milestone jobs.

v/r

Comevil
  • 0

User avatar
COMEVIL
Experienced Member
 
Posts: 792
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 11:54 am
Reputation: 33

Re: Is our promotion and command selection process TRULY fai

Postby Arkad » Sun Jul 13, 2014 2:10 pm

Has anyone done the math regarding O4 Milestones? Would be interested to see the number of O4 milestone billets, the number of O4s, and the duration we are O4s. My "Spidey Senses" tell me that there are more than enough milestones for everyone to have at least one opportunity. Your are correct, O4 milestone is a pre-requisite to both O5 milestone and Command (it is not a pre-requisite for O5). I don't believe there is an effort to use the O4 milestone as a filter, but instead as a means of ensuring our future O5s benefit from a meaningful operational experience before putting on the silver oak leaves. After doing the math, we may find that the only ones not getting O4 milestone experiences are those who either lat transferred as O4s (that has been rectified with our OPA reshaping) or do not want the opportunity (there are some). If that is the case, a very expensive board process (time and money) delivers zero ROI.

Anyone up for a little math project?
  • 0

User avatar
Arkad
Experienced Member
 
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 2:07 am
Reputation: 21

Re: Is our promotion and command selection process TRULY fai

Postby Mjölnir » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:34 am

Doh ... Schlag beat me to it ...
  • 0

Last edited by Mjölnir on Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Mjölnir
Experienced Member
 
Posts: 119
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:07 am
Location: Annapolis MD
Reputation: 21

Re: Is our promotion and command selection process TRULY fai

Postby Schlag » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:49 am

Sir,

I counted 49 milestones on the most recent milestone list (unless someone else has a newer one). Using the IWOL dated 4 Jun, I found 211 O-4/O-4 Selectees (since some selectees are detailed to milestones already, I counted them). If you subtract out what I think are O-5 2x FOS'd (and seemingly not viable for an O-4 milestone), then that drops the number to about 186-ish.

I "think" officers wear O-4 for approx 6 years. Assuming that you did all of your O-4 tours for 24 months (which I think is an aggressive estimate), that would mean that you'd have 3 shots to get into a billet. Dividing the total number of O-4/O-4 selectees by 3 results in 62.

...if my math is right (but I'm a poli sci major so who knows?) that would mean that 62 people need a milestone at any one point but there are only 49 billets. That leaves a delta of 13 or roughly 20%.

I think the math checks out through this. If you count the junior 2 YG (again, counting selectees) then you have 65 officers. Assuming that you're supposed to do a milestone immediately after pinning LCDR on, then 65 people are competing for 49 billets.

I'm not a manpower guy so I don't know if my analysis is correct. But I do remember during the last Detailer Roadshow at my command that the OCM and JO Detailer both said there weren't enough billets to go around and that your record would be reviewed by them for billet suitability.

The cyber ramp-up will probably result in increased milestone opportunities, but I wonder if that will also result in a corresponding increase in billets (thus, net gain of zero). I'm not boasting this as the final word, so if someone else can draw a different conclusion from a better set of data, I'm all ears.
  • 1

User avatar
Schlag
Experienced Member
 
Posts: 181
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: The path of the righteous man...
Reputation: 16

Re: Is our promotion and command selection process TRULY fai

Postby yoshi » Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:26 am

I'm not sure on everyone having 6 years as a LCDR. About half of the O4 selectees this year have 10 and a half years or more when they pin. They may only have 5 years as a LCDR, depending on future promotions, flow points, attrition, etc. With 5 years prior to coming in zone, it's tight. It will be interesting going forward. Will future promotions, O5 flow points, O4 FITREP cycles, and the O5 promo board timing give comparatively less time at O4 to obtain a milestone billet, a follow on joint job, and then maybe a coveted XO/leadership job? Obviously, far from everyone will fill each of these jobs as an O4. This is an additional variable for the calculus, one which is hard to factor on this side of the future.

Who and what determines which officers receive the opportunity to fill which billets? That is the larger question some have, I think. Can we do better than FITREPs and detailers/others who may or may not have ever seen us work and may or may not have ever worked the billet type they are filling? I am very confident in our ability to efficiently create a better way, provided our willingness. No matter what, though, the O4/O5 milestone billets and O5 command screening are very helpful for all officers, as you can check with chart and adjust your professional and personal course based on what is available for you.
  • 0

yoshi
Experienced Member
 
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2008 5:10 am
Reputation: 15

Is our promotion and command selection process TRULY fair?

Postby LIVINGIW » Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:17 pm

Sure would be nice to see the OCM chime in on issues like this.... Does the current OCM frequent this forum ? I know his predecessors did....
  • 0

LIVINGIW
Experienced Member
 
Posts: 138
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2009 11:36 pm
Location: CA
Reputation: 12

Re: Is our promotion and command selection process TRULY fai

Postby COMEVIL » Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:02 pm

I'm with Yoshi. A process should, and easily could, be established regardless of how "available" these jobs are/aren't. Add available-for-relief milestone tours to the XO slate each year and provide 2-3 weighted choices for each. Let the IW community leader make the final decision.

Here is the next thought. I am hearing a lot of LCDRs being told they have to wait until they are a mid-grade O-4 to fill these jobs. Now add this context. There is some messaging out there that in order to be considered for CDR CMD you must complete a LCDR XO tour. Herewith lies the challenge of timing and availability. Complete a milestone tour, but not until you are a mid-grade LCDR, and find time/opportunity for an XO tour. Not saying it can't be done. I have seen a few good examples, and hope to have it done myself soon. Still, career planning and ensuring you are competitive becomes crucial in order to get all the checks in the proverbial box. The question becomes, "how badly do you want it?"

v/r

Comevil
  • 0

User avatar
COMEVIL
Experienced Member
 
Posts: 792
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 11:54 am
Reputation: 33

Re: Is our promotion and command selection process TRULY fai

Postby Schlag » Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:44 am

COMEVIL wrote:Still, career planning and ensuring you are competitive becomes crucial in order to get all the checks in the proverbial box. The question becomes, "how badly do you want it?"


With all the of the requirements that "should" be met (JPME, JDAL, Milestones, XO, CO, etc.) I wonder if this makes XO/CO Fleet-up Options all the more viable.

I think it really comes down to this - how bad do we want our CO to have XO experience? How feasible is it under the current system that you might not get an XO ride prior to assuming the job as CO. And how feasible is it to get an XO ride and punch the rest of the cards? Are we turning away otherwise phenomenal officers solely because of timing?

Advantages to a XO/CO Fleet-up model include (in my opinion anyways)
* Greater triad continuity because the CO already knows the command after doing ~18 mo as the XO
* Increased command opportunity when compared against ~24mo CO tour if you do an 18mo/18mo XO/CO model (approximately 25% increase in command opportunities)
* Guarantee that CO have experience as an XO prior to assuming the duties
* Additional vetting by incumbent CO that the XO is good-to-go to assume command (IAW the OPNAV Command Instruction)
* Makes IDC Cross-detailing a more viable reality because it provides 18 months of "familiarization" time prior to assuming the duties as CO in doing so in a discipline different from your designator
* Guarantees an additional O-5 at the smaller NIOCs and an additional O-6 at the major commands

Disadvantages/Short-falls that I see include
* Pushes assumption of command to the right in the career path instead of where it is now
* Dedicated 36 mo tour might make it difficult to get the other milestones completed prior to statutory boards
* Unsure what might replace the XO tour in terms of career progression at the O-4 level (sure there is something that could fill it, but unsure at this time)
* More frequent turnover of CO could lead to command chaos
* More command opportunities might mean convening more administrative boards which equals more money spent
* Guarantees an additional O-5 at the smaller NIOCs and an additional O-6 at the major commands

...but I'm just spitballing
  • 0

User avatar
Schlag
Experienced Member
 
Posts: 181
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: The path of the righteous man...
Reputation: 16

Re: Is our promotion and command selection process TRULY fai

Postby stewie » Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:19 pm

The numbers are a bit off when figuring O4 Mikestone opportunities, need to consider those that complete their Milestone, but are still O4's. I went to my O4 Milestone right when I put on O4, so I spent ~5 years after completing Milestone as an O4 before selecting for O5.

I have not heard anything about needing XO as an O4 to screen for O5 Command. There has been discussion that you should have O5 Command to have for O6 Command, but the opportunities for O5 Command do not support this and the last screening board does not back this up.

There is also an unwritten policy that you need to have completed Milestone to be considered for XO/OIC.

XO tours are also trying to be curtailed to 18 month where possible to increase opportunities.
  • 0

stewie
Registered Member
 
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2011 4:21 pm
Reputation: 1

Re: Is our promotion and command selection process TRULY fai

Postby COMEVIL » Thu Jul 17, 2014 1:45 am

stewie wrote:I have not heard anything about needing XO as an O4 to screen for O5 Command.


I have heard this from multiple, highly-reliable sources. While it may not be a written rule, it sounds like it weighs/will weigh very heavily when competing for selection for CDR Command.

v/r

Comevil
  • 0

User avatar
COMEVIL
Experienced Member
 
Posts: 792
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 11:54 am
Reputation: 33

PreviousNext

Return to Navy Information Warfare

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron